The Landslide Blog is written by Dave Petley, who is widely recognized as a world leader in the study and management of landslides.
The news cycle has mostly moved on from the 13 February 2024 landslide at Çöpler Mine in Turkey, but after a few weeks it is interesting to take stock of the situation, and what we have learnt.
Triggering
There has been some speculation about potential triggers for the landslide, with suggestions for example that blasting might have played a role. It is worth noting of course that an event on this scale may not need a trigger, if a progressive failure mechanism was in play, and the observation of the development of cracks over the last few days before the collapse might support this. But, on LinkedIn, Omid Memarian Sorkhabi from University College Dublin has a thoughtful analysis of conditions leading up to the failure:-
Before the landslide on 30 January 2024, Sentinel-2 imagery captured heavy snowfall with an air temperature of -6.75°C. Subsequent observations on February 11, 2024, revealed significant snowmelt and an air temperature of 3.5°C. The rapid increase in temperature caused the snow to melt quickly, penetrating the soil layers and triggering landslides on unstable slopes, resulting in this disaster.
Dr Omid Memarian Sorkhabi, UCD
This is a credible explanation for the events over the final days, with a rapid injection of water into the heap leach stack finally destabilising the slope.
Meanwhile, the impact of the landslide continues to be felt widely. The latest reports indicate that the remains of the nine people killed in the landslide have not been recovered, with operations greatly hampered by continued risk of further failures and from potential health impacts of the mined material on the health of the rescue personnel.
Two additional engineers were arrested on 2 March 2024, although their potential role in the disaster is not clear. Reports in Turkey suggest that Anagold, the company operating the mine in country, has fired 27 workers as a result of the accident. Journalist İsmail Saymaz tweeted a letter to one of the workers:-
The automatic translation of the text of the Tweet is:-
In the gold mine in İliç, where 9 workers were trapped under the rubble, 27 workers were dismissed today, their contracts not being extended. The mining disaster was given as the reason. Other workers will be on leave until April 1. The situation will be evaluated after the election. Workers gather in İliç Square.
Tweet by İsmail Saymaz
However, Anagold has now indicated that this decision will be reviewed.
Meanwhile, the Turkish government insists that SSR Mining Inc will pay for the clean up costs of the accident, although experience from elsewhere causes me to wonder if this will be true in reality. SSR Mining itself has seen an approximate halving of its share value since the landslide, with no real recovery over the last few weeks.
