Rivian Sales Up 71% in 1st Quarter — But Can It Get To 10× Current Sales? – GWC Mag

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I just reported that several automakers saw their electric vehicle sales increase significantly in the US in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023. Why not roll Rivian into that? Well, Rivian is a different animal, and it seemed more fitting to discuss Rivian separately.

As you can see in this first chart, Q1 2024 sales are well above Q1 2023 sales, and Q1 2023 sales are Q1 2022 sales. (Q1 2022 was its first quarter of sales.) That looks like great, massive growth. And, as with the automakers I discussed earlier, it only seems fair to look at year-over-year sales, and we shouldn’t put too much weight on changes from Q4 to Q1 since comparing these quarters is often a fool’s errand. Nonetheless, looking at the long-term quarterly sales chart, it’s not the most uplifting chart for a company that many would like to see “follow Tesla’s path.”

As we can see, Rivian’s sales peak was in the 3rd quarter of last year, at 15,564 deliveries. I’m not sure if anyone really expects Rivian to reach Tesla’s level of sales — about 2 million cars a year at the moment. However, 10× growth would be a nice target, especially with its mass-market, lower-cost R2 and R3 coming (see here and here). This last quarter’s sales were 13,588. Multiplying that by ten would be 135,880 sales a quarter, and 543,520 sales a year. That seems like a very reasonable target for Rivian, but it will rely heavily on the R2 and R3.

Rivian does have a few big factors going for it. For one, it recently won the #1 spot in auto brand loyalty, according to research from Consumer Reports. That’s a title Tesla once held. Secondly, Rivian vehicles are getting access to Tesla’s Supercharger network. Third, there are a ton of Tesla owners in the US. Many of those owners will return to Tesla when they go to buy a new car again. Many, however, will want to try something new, and Rivian would be a logical choice for a good chunk of them, considering it’s another pure EV company, considering it offers different vehicle classes people may prefer, and considering the fact that Rivian vehicles have gotten rave reviews and tremendous customer loyalty.

What are your thoughts? What do you expect from Rivian in the rest of 2024? Do you think Rivian could 10× its current sales eventually? If Rivian can 10× its quarterly sales, when do you think it can achieve that?